Madhesh Province — part of Nepal’s lowland Terai — is experiencing increasing climate variability marked by erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, water scarcity, and agricultural stress. These shifts are consistent with broader climate trends documented across Nepal and reflect the growing impacts of climate change on water resources, food systems, and community well‑being.
Climate and Weather Variability
Recent years have seen below‑average monsoon rainfall in Madhesh, leading to an intensifying water crisis. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority reported that monsoon activity across Nepal was weaker than usual, leaving Madhesh among the hardest‑hit provinces with significant deficits in rainfall.
During the 2025 monsoon, the province suffered prolonged dry spells that triggered official classification as a “disaster crisis zone.” At times, water has been so scarce that municipalities resorted to using fire engines and tanker deliveries to supply drinking water in places like Parsa and Siraha.
Drought and Water Scarcity
Long monsoon delays have delayed rice transplantation — a staple agricultural activity in the region. According to agricultural reports, only about 33.8 % of paddy fields had been transplanted by mid‑season in 2025, compared with over 61 % the previous year, mainly due to lack of rainfall.
A combined ICIMOD and Ministry of Agriculture assessment indicates Madhesh typically accounts for around 27 % of Nepal’s rice cultivation area, producing approximately 1.28 million metric tons of rice annually. However, severe moisture stress in over 40 % of this area could reduce rice output by 400,000–450,000 MT, threatening food security at the regional and national levels.
Long periods without rain have also led to depleted groundwater and dried water sources (wells, hand pumps, springs) across the province, undermining both irrigation and household water access.
Local Climate Impacts and Community Stress
Climate change in Madhesh is not just about drought. Erratic rainfall patterns create hard‑to‑predict growing seasons, disrupted planting and harvesting cycles, and increased vulnerability of crops to heat, pests, and diseases. Similar climate change impacts reported nationally include drying water resources, increased pest pressures, and reduced agricultural productivity.
The effects extend beyond farming:
- Water scarcity affects hygiene, nutrition, and health outcomes.
- Women and small‑holder farmers face acute hardship under extreme heat and reduced water availability.
- Delays in rainfall affect not only crops like rice but also livelihoods tied to agricultural labour and market participation.
Underlying Climate Change Drivers
Climate change models for Nepal project higher temperatures and more variable rainfall, increasing the likelihood of both drought and extreme rainfall events. Although local rainfall trends vary year to year, the combination of warming, groundwater depletion, and ecological degradation of areas like the Chure hills is reducing resilience, making droughts more frequent and severe in the Terai.
Recommendations for Madhesh Province
- Climate‑Resilient Water Management:
Expand rainwater harvesting, storage, and small‑scale irrigation systems to buffer against erratic rainfall and support agriculture and household use. - Agriculture Adaptation:
Promote drought‑tolerant crop varieties, crop diversification, and adjusted planting calendars aligned with emerging climate patterns. - Ecosystem and Groundwater Protection:
Invest in nature‑based solutions such as restoring wetlands, recharge ponds, and regulating sand and gravel extraction to improve groundwater infiltration. - Early Warning and Climate Services:
Strengthen localised weather forecasting and climate advisory systems for farmers, including seasonal rainfall outlooks and advisory messaging. - Community Awareness and Preparedness:
Build capacity among farmers and local leaders on climate risks, adaptive farming practices, and water conservation techniques. - Policy and Budget Support:
Advocate for increased Provincial budgets for climate adaptation, irrigation infrastructure, and technical support for drought impact monitoring.
Summary:
Climate change in Madhesh Province is manifesting through prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, water scarcity, and agricultural stress that threaten food security and livelihoods. These changes — backed by rainfall data, agricultural disruptions, and environmental analyses — underline the urgent need for climate‑adaptive planning, water resilience, and community-centred interventions to protect the province’s people and ecosystems.